SIST EN IEC 31010:2019

Risk management - Risk assessment techniques (IEC 31010:2019)

This International Standard provides guidance on the selection and application of techniques
for assessing risk in a wide range of situations. The techniques are used to assist in making
decisions where there is uncertainty, to provide information about particular risks and as part
of a process for managing risk. The document provides summaries of a range of techniques,
with references to other documents where the techniques are described in more detail.

Risikomanagement - Verfahren zur Risikobeurteilung (IEC 31010:2019)

Gestion des risques - Techniques d'évaluation des risques (IEC 31010:2019)

IEC 31010:2019 est publiée en tant que norme double logo avec ISO et donne des recommandations pour le choix et l'application des techniques d'appréciation du risque dans différentes situations. Ces techniques visent à aider à la prise de décision en cas d'incertitude, à donner des informations relatives à des risques particuliers et dans le cadre d'un processus de management du risque. Le document récapitule l'éventail des techniques, avec des références vers d'autres documents où ces techniques sont décrites de manière plus précise. Cette deuxième édition annule et remplace la première édition parue en 2009. Cette édition constitue une révision technique. Cette édition inclut les modifications techniques majeures suivantes par rapport à l'édition précédente:
• les processus de planification, de mise en œuvre, de vérification et de validation de l'utilisation des techniques sont décrits de manière plus précise;
• le nombre et la plage d'application des techniques ont été élargis;
• les concepts couverts par l'ISO 31000 ne sont plus traités dans la présente norme.
Mots clés : incertitude, management du risque

Obvladovanje tveganja - Tehnike ocenjevanja tveganja (IEC 31010:2019)

Ta mednarodni standard zagotavlja smernice glede izbire in uporabe tehnik ocenjevanja tveganja v številnih okoliščinah. Tehnike, ki se uporabljajo za pomoč pri odločanju v primeru negotovosti, zagotavljajo informacije o določenih tveganjih in so del procesa upravljanja tveganja. Ta dokument vsebuje povzetke številnih tehnik in se sklicuje na druge dokumente, v katerih so tehnike podrobno opisane.

General Information

• Status: Published
• Publication Date: 04-Sep-2019
• ICS: 03.100.01 - Company organization and management in general
• Technical Committee: I11 - Imaginarni 11
• Current Stage: 6060 - National Implementation/Publication (Adopted Project)
• Start Date: 27-Aug-2019
• Due Date: 01-Nov-2019
• Completion Date: 05-Sep-2019
• Ref Project: EN IEC 31010:2019 - Risk management - Risk assessment techniques

Relations

• Replaces: SIST ISO/IEC 31010:2011 - Risk management - Risk assessment techniques
• Effective Date: 01-Oct-2019
• Revised: SIST EN 31010:2010 - Risk management - Risk assessment techniques (IEC/ISO 31010:2009)
• Effective Date: 02-Aug-2016
• Replaces: SIST EN 31010:2010 - Risk management - Risk assessment techniques (IEC/ISO 31010:2009)
• Effective Date: 20-Aug-2019
• Replaces: SIST EN 31010:2010 - Risk management - Risk assessment techniques (IEC/ISO 31010:2009)
• Effective Date: 07-Jun-2022

Standards Content (Sample)

SLOVENSKI STANDARD
SIST EN IEC 31010:2019
01-oktober-2019
Nadomešča:
SIST EN 31010:2010
SIST ISO/IEC 31010:2011
Obvladovanje tveganja - Tehnike ocenjevanja tveganja (IEC 31010:2019)
Risk management - Risk assessment techniques (IEC 31010:2019)
Risikomanagement - Verfahren zur Risikobeurteilung (IEC 31010:2019)
Gestion des risques - Techniques d'évaluation des risques (IEC 31010:2019)
Ta slovenski standard je istoveten z: EN IEC 31010:2019
ICS:
03.100.01 Organizacija in vodenje Company organization and
podjetja na splošno management in general
SIST EN IEC 31010:2019 en
2003-01.Slovenski inštitut za standardizacijo. Razmnoževanje celote ali delov tega standarda ni dovoljeno.

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SIST EN IEC 31010:2019

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SIST EN IEC 31010:2019


EUROPEAN STANDARD EN IEC 31010

NORME EUROPÉENNE

EUROPÄISCHE NORM
August 2019
ICS 03.100.01 Supersedes EN 31010:2010 and all of its amendments
and corrigenda (if any)
English Version
Risk management - Risk assessment techniques
(IEC 31010:2019)
Management du risque - Techniques d'appréciation du Risikomanagement - Verfahren zur Risikobeurteilung
risque (IEC 31010:2019)
(IEC 31010:2019)
This European Standard was approved by CENELEC on 2019-07-18. CENELEC members are bound to comply with the CEN/CENELEC
Internal Regulations which stipulate the conditions for giving this European Standard the status of a national standard without any alteration.
Up-to-date lists and bibliographical references concerning such national standards may be obtained on application to the CEN-CENELEC
Management Centre or to any CENELEC member.
This European Standard exists in three official versions (English, French, German). A version in any other language made by translation
under the responsibility of a CENELEC member into its own language and notified to the CEN-CENELEC Management Centre has the
same status as the official versions.
CENELEC members are the national electrotechnical committees of Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, the Czech Republic,
Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, the
Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Republic of North Macedonia, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland,
Turkey and the United Kingdom.


European Committee for Electrotechnical Standardization
Comité Européen de Normalisation Electrotechnique
Europäisches Komitee für Elektrotechnische Normung
CEN-CENELEC Management Centre: Rue de la Science 23, B-1040 Brussels
© 2019 CENELEC All rights of exploitation in any form and by any means reserved worldwide for CENELEC Members.
 Ref. No. EN IEC 31010:2019 E

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SIST EN IEC 31010:2019
EN IEC 31010:2019 (E)
European foreword
The text of document 56/1837/FDIS, future edition 2 of IEC 31010, prepared by IEC/TC 56
"Dependability" was submitted to the IEC-CENELEC parallel vote and approved by CENELEC as
EN IEC 31010:2019.
The following dates are fixed:
• latest date by which the document has to be implemented at national (dop) 2020-04-18
level by publication of an identical national standard or by endorsement
• latest date by which the national standards conflicting with the (dow) 2022-07-18
document have to be withdrawn

This document supersedes EN 31010:2010.
Attention is drawn to the possibility that some of the elements of this document may be the subject of
patent rights. CENELEC shall not be held responsible for identifying any or all such patent rights.

Endorsement notice
The text of the International Standard IEC 31010:2019 was approved by CENELEC as a European
Standard without any modification.

In the official version, for Bibliography, the following notes have to be added for the standards
indicated:
IEC 62740 NOTE Harmonized as EN 62740
IEC 60812 NOTE Harmonized as EN IEC 60812
IEC 61882 NOTE Harmonized as EN 61882
ISO 22000 NOTE Harmonized as EN ISO 22000
IEC 61508 (series) NOTE Harmonized as EN 61508 (series)
IEC 61511 (series) NOTE Harmonized as EN 61511 (series)
ISO 22301 NOTE Harmonized as EN ISO 22301
IEC 62502 NOTE Harmonized as EN 62502
IEC 62508 NOTE Harmonized as EN 62508
IEC 61165 NOTE Harmonized as EN 61165
IEC 60300-3-11 NOTE Harmonized as EN 60300-3-11

2

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SIST EN IEC 31010:2019
EN IEC 31010:2019 (E)
Annex ZA
(normative)

Normative references to international publications
with their corresponding European publications
The following documents are referred to in the text in such a way that some or all of their content
constitutes requirements of this document. For dated references, only the edition cited applies. For
undated references, the latest edition of the referenced document (including any amendments)
applies.
NOTE 1  Where an International Publication has been modified by common modifications, indicated by (mod), the relevant
EN/HD applies.
NOTE 2  Up-to-date information on the latest versions of the European Standards listed in this annex is available here:
www.cenelec.eu.

Publication Year Title EN/HD Year
ISO 31000 2018 Risk management_- Guidelines - -
ISO Guide 73 2009 Risk management_- Vocabulary - -



3

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SIST EN IEC 31010:2019




IEC 31010


Edition 2.0 2019-06




INTERNATIONAL



STANDARD




NORME



INTERNATIONALE
colour

inside










Risk management – Risk assessment techniques



Management du risque – Techniques d'appréciation du risque



















INTERNATIONAL

ELECTROTECHNICAL

COMMISSION


COMMISSION

ELECTROTECHNIQUE


INTERNATIONALE




ICS 03.100.01 ISBN 978-2-8322-6989-3




Warning! Make sure that you obtained this publication from an authorized distributor.

Attention! Veuillez vous assurer que vous avez obtenu cette publication via un distributeur agréé.

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CONTENTS
FOREWORD . 6
INTRODUCTION . 8
1 Scope . 9
2 Normative references . 9
3 Terms and definitions . 9
4 Core concepts . 10
4.1 Uncertainty . 10
4.2 Risk . 11
5 Uses of risk assessment techniques . 11
6 Implementing risk assessment . 12
6.1 Plan the assessment . 12
6.1.1 Define purpose and scope of the assessment . 12
6.1.2 Understand the context . 13
6.1.3 Engage with stakeholders . 13
6.1.4 Define objectives . 13
6.1.5 Consider human, organizational and social factors . 13
6.1.6 Review criteria for decisions . 14
6.2 Manage information and develop models . 16
6.2.1 General . 16
6.2.2 Collecting information . 16
6.2.3 Analysing data . 16
6.2.4 Developing and applying models . 17
6.3 Apply risk assessment techniques. 18
6.3.1 Overview . 18
6.3.2 Identifying risk . 19
6.3.3 Determining sources, causes and drivers of risk . 19
6.3.4 Investigating the effectiveness of existing controls . 20
6.3.5 Understanding consequences, and likelihood . 20
6.3.6 Analysing interactions and dependencies . 22
6.3.7 Understanding measures of risk . 22
6.4 Review the analysis . 25
6.4.1 Verifying and validating results . 25
6.4.2 Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis . 25
6.4.3 Monitoring and review . 26
6.5 Apply results to support decisions . 26
6.5.1 Overview . 26
6.5.2 Decisions about the significance of risk . 27
6.5.3 Decisions that involve selecting between options . 27
6.6 Record and report risk assessment process and outcomes . 28
7 Selecting risk assessment techniques. 28
7.1 General . 28
7.2 Selecting techniques . 29
Annex A (informative) Categorization of techniques . 31
A.1 Introduction to categorization of techniques . 31
A.2 Application of categorization of techniques . 31
A.3 Use of techniques during the ISO 31000 process . 37

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IEC 31010:2019  IEC 2019 – 3 –
Annex B (informative) Description of techniques . 40
B.1 Techniques for eliciting views from stakeholders and experts. 40
B.1.1 General . 40
B.1.2 Brainstorming . 40
B.1.3 Delphi technique . 42
B.1.4 Nominal group technique . 43
B.1.5 Structured or semi-structured interviews . 44
B.1.6 Surveys . 45
B.2 Techniques for identifying risk. 46
B.2.1 General . 46
B.2.2 Checklists, classifications and taxonomies . 47
B.2.3 Failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and failure modes, effects
and criticality analysis (FMECA) . 49
B.2.4 Hazard and operability (HAZOP) studies . 50
B.2.5 Scenario analysis . 52
B.2.6 Structured what if technique (SWIFT) . 54
B.3 Techniques for determining sources, causes and drivers of risk . 55
B.3.1 General . 55
B.3.2 Cindynic approach . 56
B.3.3 Ishikawa analysis (fishbone) method . 58
B.4 Techniques for analysing controls . 60
B.4.1 General . 60
B.4.2 Bow tie analysis . 60
B.4.3 Hazard analysis and critical control points (HACCP) . 62
B.4.4 Layers of protection analysis (LOPA) . 64
B.5 Techniques for understanding consequences and likelihood . 66
B.5.1 General . 66
B.5.2 Bayesian analysis . 66
B.5.3 Bayesian networks and influence diagrams . 68
B.5.4 Business impact analysis (BIA) . 70
B.5.5 Cause-consequence analysis (CCA) . 72
B.5.6 Event tree analysis (ETA) . 74
B.5.7 Fault tree analysis (FTA) . 76
B.5.8 Human reliability analysis (HRA) . 78
B.5.9 Markov analysis . 79
B.5.10 Monte Carlo simulation . 81
B.5.11 Privacy impact analysis (PIA) / data protection impact analysis (DPIA) . 83
B.6 Techniques for analysing dependencies and interactions . 85
B.6.1 Causal mapping . 85
B.6.2 Cross impact analysis . 87
B.7 Techniques that provide a measure of risk . 89
B.7.1 Toxicological risk assessment. 89
B.7.2 Value at risk (VaR) . 91
B.7.3 Conditional value at risk (CVaR) or expected shortfall (ES) . 93
B.8 Techniques for evaluating the significance of risk . 94
B.8.1 General . 94
B.8.2 As low as reasonably practicable (ALARP) and so far as is reasonably
practicable (SFAIRP) . 94

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B.8.3 Frequency-number (F-N) diagrams . 96
B.8.4 Pareto charts . 98
B.8.5 Reliability centred maintenance (RCM) . 100
B.8.6 Risk indices . 102
B.9 Techniques for selecting between options . 103
B.9.1 General . 103
B.9.2 Cost/benefit analysis (CBA) . 104
B.9.3 Decision tree analysis . 106
B.9.4 Game theory . 107
B.9.5 Multi-criteria analysis (MCA) . 109
B.10 Techniques for recording and reporting . 111
B.10.1 General . 111
B.10.2 Risk registers . 112
B.10.3 Consequence/likelihood matrix (risk matrix or heat map) . 113
B.10.4 S-curves . 117
Bibliography . 119

Figure A.1 – Application of techniques in the ISO 31000 risk management process [3] . 37
Figure B.1 – Example Ishikawa (fishbone) diagram . 59
Figure B.2 – Example of Bowtie . 61
Figure B.3 – A Bayesian network showing a simplified version of a real ecological
problem: modelling native fish populations in Victoria, Australia . 69
Figure B.4 – Example of cause-consequence diagram . 73
Figure B.5 – Example of event tree analysis . 75
Figure B.6 – Example of fault tree . 77
Figure B.7 – Example of Markov diagram . 80
Figure B.8 – Example of dose response curve . 89
Figure B.9 – Distribution of value . 91
Figure B.10 – Detail of loss region VaR values . 91
Figure B.11 – VaR and CVaR for possible loss portfolio . 93
Figure B.12 – ALARP diagram . 95
Figure B.13 – Sample F-N diagram . 97
Figure B.14 – Example of a Pareto chart . 98
Figure B.15 – Part example of table defining consequence scales . 114
Figure B.16 – Part example of a likelihood scale . 114
Figure B.17 – Example of consequence/likelihood matrix . 115
Figure B.18 – Probability distribution function and cumulative distribution function. 117

Table A.1 – Characteristics of techniques . 31
Table A.2 – Techniques and indicative characteristics . 32
Table A.3 – Applicability of techniques to the ISO 31000 process . 38
Table B.1 – Examples of basic guidewords and their generic meanings . 51

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IEC 31010:2019  IEC 2019 – 5 –
Table B.2 – Table of deficits for each stakeholder . 57
Table B.3 – Table of dissonances between stakeholders . 57
Table B.4 – Example of Markov matrix . 80
Table B.5 – Examples of systems to which Markov analysis can be applied . 81
Table B.6 – An example of RCM task selection . 101
Table B.7 – Example of a game matrix . 108

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SIST EN IEC 31010:2019
– 6 – IEC 31010:2019  IEC 2019
INTERNATIONAL ELECTROTECHNICAL COMMISSION
____________

RISK MANAGEMENT –
RISK ASSESSMENT TECHNIQUES

FOREWORD
1) The International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) is a worldwide organization for standardization comprising
all national electrotechnical committees (IEC National Committees). The object of IEC is to promote international
co-operation on all questions concerning standardization in the electrical and electronic fields. To this end and
in addition to other activities, IEC publishes International Standards, Technical Specifications, Technical Reports,
Publicly Available Specifications (PAS) and Guides (hereafter referred to as "IEC Publication(s)"). Their
preparation is entrusted to technical committees; any IEC National Committee interested in the subject dealt with
may participate in this preparatory work. International, governmental and non-governmental organizations liaising
with the IEC also participate in this preparation. IEC collaborates closely with the International Organization for
Standardization (ISO) in accordance with conditions determined by agreement between the two organizations.
2) The formal decisions or agreements of IEC on technical matters express, as nearly as possible, an international
consensus of opinion on the relevant subjects since each technical committee has representation from all
interested IEC National Committees.
3) IEC Publications have the form of recommendations for international use and are accepted by IEC National
Committees in that sense. While all reasonable efforts are made to ensure that the technical content of IEC
Publications is accurate, IEC cannot be held responsible for the way in which they are used or for any
misinterpretation by any end user.
4) In order to promote international uniformity, IEC National Committees undertake to apply IEC Publications
transparently to the maximum extent possible in their national and regional publications. Any divergence between
any IEC Publication and the corresponding national or regional publication shall be clearly indicated in the latter.
5) IEC itself does not provide any attestation of conformity. Independent certification bodies provide conformity
assessment services and, in some areas, access to IEC marks of conformity. IEC is not responsible for any
services carried out by independent certification bodies.
6) All users should ensure that they have the latest edition of this publication.
7) No liability shall attach to IEC or its directors, employees, servants or agents including individual experts and
members of its technical committees and IEC National Committees for any personal injury, property damage or
other damage of any nature whatsoever, whether direct or indirect, or for costs (including legal fees) and
expenses arising out of the publication, use of, or reliance upon, this IEC Publication or any other IEC
Publications.
8) Attention is drawn to the Normative references cited in this publication. Use of the referenced publications is
indispensable for the correct application of this publication.
9) Attention is drawn to the possibility that some of the elements of this IEC Publication may be the subject of patent
rights. IEC shall not be held responsible for identifying any or all such patent rights.
International Standard IEC 31010 has been prepared by IEC technical committee 56:
Dependability, in co-operation with ISO technical committee 262: Risk management.
It is published as a double logo standard.
This second edition cancels and replaces the first edition published in 2009. This edition
constitutes a technical revision.
This edition includes the following significant technical changes with respect to the previous
edition:
• more detail is given on the process of planning, implementing, verifying and validating the
use of the techniques;
• the number and range of application of the techniques has been increased;
• the concepts covered in ISO 31000 are no longer repeated in this standard.

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SIST EN IEC 31010:2019
IEC 31010:2019  IEC 2019 – 7 –
The text of this International Standard is based on the following documents of IEC:
FDIS Report on voting
56/1837/FDIS 56/1845/RVD

Full information on the voting for the approval of this International Standard can be found in the
report on voting indicated in the above table. In ISO, the standard has been approved by 44 P
members out of 46 having cast a vote.
This document has been drafted in accordance with the ISO/IEC Directives, Part 2.
The committee has decided that the contents of this document will remain unchanged until the
stability date indicated on the IEC website under "http://webstore.iec.ch" in the data related to
the specific document. At this date, the document will be
• reconfirmed,
• withdrawn,
• replaced by a revised edition, or
• amended.

IMPORTANT – The 'colour inside' logo on the cover page of this publication indicates
that it contains colours which are considered to be useful for the correct understanding
of its contents. Users should therefore print this document using a colour printer.

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– 8 – IEC 31010:2019  IEC 2019
INTRODUCTION
This document provides guidance on the selection and application of various techniques that
can be used to help improve the way uncertainty is taken into account and to help understand
risk.
The techniques are used:
• where further understanding is required about what risk exists or about a particular risk;
• within a decision where a range of options each involving risk need to be compared or
optimized;
• within a risk management process leading to actions to treat risk.
The techniques are used within the risk assessment steps of identifying, analysing and
evaluating risk as described in ISO 31000, and more generally whenever there is a need to
understand uncertainty and its effects.
The techniques described in this document can be used in a wide range of settings, however
the majority originated in the technical domain. Some techniques are similar in concept but
have different names and methodologies that reflect the history of their development in different
sectors. Techniques have evolved over time and continue to evolve, and many can be used in
a broad range of situations outside their original application. Techniques can be adapted,
combined and applied in new ways or extended to satisfy current and future needs.
This document is an introduction to selected techniques and compares their possible
applications, benefits and limitations. It also provides references to sources of more detailed
information.
The potential audience for this document is:
• anyone involved in assessing or managing risk;
• people who are involved in developing guidance that sets out how risk is to be assessed in
specific contexts;
• people who need to make decisions where there is uncertainty
...