Standard Guide for Conducting a Sensitivity Analysis for a Ground-Water Flow Model Application

SIGNIFICANCE AND USE
After a model has been calibrated and used to draw conclusions about a physical hydrogeologic system (for example, estimating the capture zone of a proposed extraction well), a sensitivity analysis can be performed to identify which model inputs have the most impact on the degree of calibration and on the conclusions of the modeling analysis.
If variations in some model inputs result in insignificant changes in the degree of calibration but cause significantly different conclusions, then the mere fact of having used a calibrated model does not mean that the conclusions of the modeling study are valid.
This guide is not meant to be an inflexible description of techniques of performing a sensitivity analysis; other techniques may be applied as appropriate and, after due consideration, some of the techniques herein may be omitted, altered, or enhanced.
SCOPE
1.1 This guide covers techniques that should be used to conduct a sensitivity analysis for a ground-water flow model. The sensitivity analysis results in quantitative relationships between model results and the input hydraulic properties or boundary conditions of the aquifers.
1.2 After a ground-water flow model has been calibrated, a sensitivity analysis may be performed. Examination of the sensitivity of calibration residuals and model conclusions to model inputs is a method for assessing the adequacy of the model with respect to its intended function.
1.3 After a model has been calibrated, a modeler may vary the value of some aspect of the conditions applying solely to the prediction simulations in order to satisfy some design criteria. For example, the number and locations of proposed pumping wells may be varied in order to minimize the required discharge. Insofar as these aspects are controllable, variation of these parameters is part of an optimization procedure, and, for the purposes of this guide, would not be considered to be a sensitivity analysis. On the other hand, estimates of future conditions that are not controllable, such as the recharge during a postulated drought of unknown duration and severity, would be considered as candidates for a sensitivity analysis.
1.4 This guide presents the simplest acceptable techniques for conducting a sensitivity analysis. Other techniques have been developed by researchers and could be used in lieu of the techniques in this guide.
1.5 This guide is written for performing sensitivity analyses for ground-water flow models. However, these techniques could be applied to other types of ground-water related models, such as analytical models, multi-phase flow models, non-continuum (karst or fracture flow) models, or mass transport models.
1.6 This guide is one of a series on ground-water modeling codes (software) and their applications, such as Guide D5447 and Guide D5490. Other standards have been prepared on environmental modeling, such as Practice E978.
1.7 The values stated in inch-pound units are to be regarded as the standard. The SI units given in parentheses are for information only.
1.8 This standard does not purport to address all of the safety concerns, if any, associated with its use. It is the responsibility of the user of this standard to establish appropriate safety and health practices and determine the applicability of regulatory limitations prior to use.  
1.9 This guide offers an organized collection of information or a series of options and does not recommend a specific course of action. This document cannot replace education or judgement. Not all aspects of this guide may be applicalbe in all circumstances. This ASTM standard is not intended to represent or replace the standard of care by which the adequacy of a given professional service must be judged, nor should this unique aspects. The word "Standard" in the title of this document means only that the document has been approved through the ASTM consensus process.

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Historical
Publication Date
14-Sep-1994
Current Stage
Ref Project

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NOTICE: This standard has either been superseded and replaced by a new version or withdrawn.
Contact ASTM International (www.astm.org) for the latest information
Designation:D5611–94 (Reapproved 2002)
Standard Guide for
Conducting a Sensitivity Analysis for a Ground-Water Flow
1
Model Application
This standard is issued under the fixed designation D5611; the number immediately following the designation indicates the year of
original adoption or, in the case of revision, the year of last revision.Anumber in parentheses indicates the year of last reapproval.A
superscript epsilon (e) indicates an editorial change since the last revision or reapproval.
1. Scope 1.7 The values stated in inch-pound units are to be regarded
as the standard. The SI units given in parentheses are for
1.1 This guide covers techniques that should be used to
information only.
conduct a sensitivity analysis for a ground-water flow model.
1.8 This standard does not purport to address all of the
The sensitivity analysis results in quantitative relationships
safety concerns, if any, associated with its use. It is the
between model results and the input hydraulic properties or
responsibility of the user of this standard to establish appro-
boundary conditions of the aquifers.
priate safety and health practices and determine the applica-
1.2 After a ground-water flow model has been calibrated, a
bility of regulatory limitations prior to use.
sensitivity analysis may be performed. Examination of the
1.9 This guide offers an organized collection of information
sensitivity of calibration residuals and model conclusions to
or a series of options and does not recommend a specific
model inputs is a method for assessing the adequacy of the
course of action. This document cannot replace education or
model with respect to its intended function.
experience and should be used in conjunction with professional
1.3 After a model has been calibrated, a modeler may vary
judgment. Not all aspects of this guide may be applicable in all
the value of some aspect of the conditions applying solely to
circumstances. This ASTM standard is not intended to repre-
the prediction simulations in order to satisfy some design
sent or replace the standard of care by which the adequacy of
criteria. For example, the number and locations of proposed
a given professional service must be judged, nor should this
pumpingwellsmaybevariedinordertominimizetherequired
document be applied without consideration of a project’s many
discharge.Insofarastheseaspectsarecontrollable,variationof
unique aspects. The word “Standard” in the title of this
these parameters is part of an optimization procedure, and, for
document means only that the document has been approved
the purposes of this guide, would not be considered to be a
through the ASTM consensus process.
sensitivity analysis. On the other hand, estimates of future
conditionsthatarenotcontrollable,suchastherechargeduring
2. Referenced Documents
a postulated drought of unknown duration and severity, would
2.1 ASTM Standards:
be considered as candidates for a sensitivity analysis.
D653 Terminology Relating to Soil, Rock, and Contained
1.4 This guide presents the simplest acceptable techniques
2
Fluids
for conducting a sensitivity analysis. Other techniques have
D5447 Guide for Application of a Ground-Water Flow
been developed by researchers and could be used in lieu of the
2
Model to a Site-Specific Problem
techniques in this guide.
D5490 Guide for Comparing Ground-Water Flow Model
1.5 This guide is written for performing sensitivity analyses
2
Simulations to Site-Specific Information
for ground-water flow models. However, these techniques
E978 Practice for Evaluating Mathematical Models for the
couldbeappliedtoothertypesofground-waterrelatedmodels,
3
Environmental Fate of Chemicals
such as analytical models, multi-phase flow models, non-
continuum (karst or fracture flow) models, or mass transport
3. Terminology
models.
3.1 Definitions:
1.6 This guide is one of a series on ground-water modeling
3.1.1 boundary condition—a mathematical expression of a
codes (software) and their applications, such as Guide D5447
stateofthephysicalsystemthatconstrainstheequationsofthe
and Guide D5490. Other standards have been prepared on
mathematical model.
environmental modeling, such as Practice E978.
1
This guide is under the jurisdiction of ASTM Committee D18 on Soil and
Rockand is the direct responsibility of Subcommittee D18.21 on GroundWater and
2
Vadose Zone Investigations. Annual Book of ASTM Standards, Vol 04.08.
3
Current edition approved Sept. 15, 1994. Published October 1994. Annual Book of ASTM Standards, Vol 11.05.
Copyright © ASTM International, 100 Barr Harbor Drive, PO Box C700, West Conshohocken, PA 19428-2959, United States.
1

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D5611–94 (2002)
3.1.2 calibration—the process of refining the model repre- ample, estimating the capture zone of a proposed extraction
sentation of the hydrogeologi
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