ISO 16698:2019
(Main)Space environment (natural and artificial) — Methods for estimation of future geomagnetic activity
Space environment (natural and artificial) — Methods for estimation of future geomagnetic activity
This document specifies the methods used for estimating geomagnetic indices for time intervals ranging from short-term (hours to a few months) to long-term (months to years). This document is intended for use to predict future geomagnetic indices and space environment.
Environnement spatial (naturel et artificiel) — Méthodes d'estimation de l'activité magnétique future
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INTERNATIONAL ISO
STANDARD 16698
Second edition
2019-12
Space environment (natural and
artificial) — Methods for estimation of
future geomagnetic activity
Environnement spatial (naturel et artificiel) — Méthodes
d'estimation de l'activité magnétique future
Reference number
©
ISO 2019
ISO 16698:2019(E)
COPYRIGHT PROTECTED DOCUMENT
© ISO 2019
All rights reserved. Unless otherwise specified, or required in the context of its implementation, no part of this publication may
be reproduced or utilized otherwise in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, or posting
on the internet or an intranet, without prior written permission. Permission can be requested from either ISO at the address
below or ISO’s member body in the country of the requester.
ISO copyright office
CP 401 • Ch. de Blandonnet 8
CH-1214 Vernier, Geneva
Phone: +41 22 749 01 11
Fax: +41 22 749 09 47
Email: copyright@iso.org
Website: www.iso.org
Published in Switzerland
ii © ISO 2019 – All rights reserved
ISO 16698:2019(E)
Contents Page
Foreword .v
Introduction .vi
1 Scope . 1
2 Normative references . 1
3 Terms and definitions . 1
4 Symbols and abbreviated terms . 1
5 General parameters . 2
5.1 Geomagnetic field variations . 2
5.2 Quiet level and disturbance fields . 2
5.3 K index (local 3 h range index). 2
5.4 Kp, ΣKp, ap and Ap indices (planetary indices) . 3
5.4.1 General. 3
5.4.2 Kp index (planetary 3 h range index) . 3
5.4.3 ΣKp index (planetary daily range index) . 3
5.4.4 ap index (planetary 3 h equivalent amplitude index). 3
5.4.5 Ap index (planetary daily equivalent amplitude index) . 4
5.5 aa index (antipodal amplitude index) . 4
5.6 Dst index (storm time disturbance index) . 4
5.7 ASY and SYM indices (mid-latitude disturbance indices) . 5
5.8 AU, AL, AE and AO indices (auroral electrojet indices) . 5
5.9 am index. 6
5.10 PC index . 7
5.11 Time lag in the derivation and temporal resolution (sampling) . 7
6 Classification of prediction . 8
6.1 General . 8
6.2 Short-term prediction . 8
6.3 Middle-term prediction . 8
6.4 Long-term prediction . 8
7 Methods of prediction . 9
7.1 General . 9
7.2 Prediction based on statistical models. 9
7.2.1 Linear or non-linear prediction filter . 9
7.2.2 Machine learning . 9
7.2.3 Probabilistic prediction . 9
7.3 Prediction based on physical principle . 9
8 Evaluation of prediction efficiency . 9
8.1 Definition of prediction error . 9
8.2 Methods of evaluation .10
9 Compliance criteria .10
9.1 Rationale.10
9.2 Reporting .10
9.3 Documenting.10
9.4 Publishing .11
9.5 Archiving .11
10 Useful Informative Documents .11
Annex A (informative) Websites where geomagnetic indices are available .12
Annex B (informative) Websites where the space weather predictions and/or "now casting"
are presented .13
Annex C (informative) Definition of various skill scores .14
ISO 16698:2019(E)
Annex D (informative) Useful academic documents related with this document's fields are
presented (These are not cited in the document) .15
Bibliography .22
iv © ISO 2019 – All rights reserved
ISO 16698:2019(E)
Foreword
ISO (the International Organization for Standardization) is a worldwide federation of national standards
bodies (ISO member bodies). The work of preparing International Standards is normally carried out
through ISO technical committees. Each member body interested in a subject for which a technical
committee has been established has the right to be represented on that committee. International
organizations, governmental and non-governmental, in liaison with ISO, also take part in the work.
ISO collaborates closely with the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) on all matters of
electrotechnical standardization.
The procedures used to develop this document and those intended for its further maintenance are
described in the ISO/IEC Directives, Part 1. In particular, the different approval criteria needed for the
different types of ISO documents should be noted. This document was drafted in accordance with the
editorial rules of the ISO/IEC Directives, Part 2 (see www .iso .org/ directives).
Attention is drawn to the possibility that some of the elements of this document may be the subject of
patent rights. ISO shall not be held responsible for identifying any or all such patent rights. Details of
any patent rights identified during the development of the document will be in the Introduction and/or
on the ISO list of patent declarations received (see www .iso .org/ patents).
Any trade name used in this document is information given for the convenience of users and does not
constitute an endorsement.
For an explanation of the voluntary nature of standards, the meaning of ISO specific terms and
expressions related to conformity assessment, as well as information about ISO's adherence to the
World Trade Organization (WTO) principles in the Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT) see www .iso .org/
iso/ foreword .html.
This document was prepared by Technical Committee ISO/TC 20, Aircraft and space vehicles,
Subcommittee SC 14, Space systems and operations.
This second edition cancels and replaces the first edition (ISO 16698:2013), which has been technically
revised. The main changes compared to the previous edition are as follows:
— addition of 5.9 and 5.10;
— update of reference lists of Clause 6.
Any feedback or questions on this document should be directed to the user’s national standards body. A
complete listing of these bodies can be found at www .iso .org/ members .html.
ISO 16698:2019(E)
Introduction
This document provides guidelines for specifying the process of estimating future geomagnetic
activity. Geomagnetic indices describe the variation of the geomagnetic field over a certain time period
and provide a measure of the disturbance of the magnetosphere. These indices can be used to estimate
upper atmospheric and plasmaspheric densities and many other space environment models. They are
also used as the input parameters for orbital lifetime prediction and worst-case environment analysis
of electrostatic charging.
The accuracy and method of predicting geomagnetic indices depends on the time scale of prediction.
This document presents existing works based on three categories of time scale:
a) short-term prediction (1 h to a few days);
b) middle-term prediction (a few weeks to a few months);
c) long-term prediction (half a year to one solar cycle).
These are required as input parameters for the magnetospheric magnetic field (ISO 22009), upper
atmosphere (ISO 14222), ionosphere, plasmasphere (ISO 16457), magnetosphere charged particles and
other models of the near-Earth space environment. They also serve as the input parameters for orbital
lifetime prediction and worst-case environment analysis of electrostatic charging.
Three International Standards deal with the Earth's magnetic field, including ISO 16695 on the internal
magnetic field, ISO 22009 on
...
INTERNATIONAL ISO
STANDARD 16698
Second edition
2019-12
Space environment (natural and
artificial) — Methods for estimation of
future geomagnetic activity
Environnement spatial (naturel et artificiel) — Méthodes
d'estimation de l'activité magnétique future
Reference number
©
ISO 2019
ISO 16698:2019(E)
COPYRIGHT PROTECTED DOCUMENT
© ISO 2019
All rights reserved. Unless otherwise specified, or required in the context of its implementation, no part of this publication may
be reproduced or utilized otherwise in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, or posting
on the internet or an intranet, without prior written permission. Permission can be requested from either ISO at the address
below or ISO’s member body in the country of the requester.
ISO copyright office
CP 401 • Ch. de Blandonnet 8
CH-1214 Vernier, Geneva
Phone: +41 22 749 01 11
Fax: +41 22 749 09 47
Email: copyright@iso.org
Website: www.iso.org
Published in Switzerland
ii © ISO 2019 – All rights reserved
ISO 16698:2019(E)
Contents Page
Foreword .v
Introduction .vi
1 Scope . 1
2 Normative references . 1
3 Terms and definitions . 1
4 Symbols and abbreviated terms . 1
5 General parameters . 2
5.1 Geomagnetic field variations . 2
5.2 Quiet level and disturbance fields . 2
5.3 K index (local 3 h range index). 2
5.4 Kp, ΣKp, ap and Ap indices (planetary indices) . 3
5.4.1 General. 3
5.4.2 Kp index (planetary 3 h range index) . 3
5.4.3 ΣKp index (planetary daily range index) . 3
5.4.4 ap index (planetary 3 h equivalent amplitude index). 3
5.4.5 Ap index (planetary daily equivalent amplitude index) . 4
5.5 aa index (antipodal amplitude index) . 4
5.6 Dst index (storm time disturbance index) . 4
5.7 ASY and SYM indices (mid-latitude disturbance indices) . 5
5.8 AU, AL, AE and AO indices (auroral electrojet indices) . 5
5.9 am index. 6
5.10 PC index . 7
5.11 Time lag in the derivation and temporal resolution (sampling) . 7
6 Classification of prediction . 8
6.1 General . 8
6.2 Short-term prediction . 8
6.3 Middle-term prediction . 8
6.4 Long-term prediction . 8
7 Methods of prediction . 9
7.1 General . 9
7.2 Prediction based on statistical models. 9
7.2.1 Linear or non-linear prediction filter . 9
7.2.2 Machine learning . 9
7.2.3 Probabilistic prediction . 9
7.3 Prediction based on physical principle . 9
8 Evaluation of prediction efficiency . 9
8.1 Definition of prediction error . 9
8.2 Methods of evaluation .10
9 Compliance criteria .10
9.1 Rationale.10
9.2 Reporting .10
9.3 Documenting.10
9.4 Publishing .11
9.5 Archiving .11
10 Useful Informative Documents .11
Annex A (informative) Websites where geomagnetic indices are available .12
Annex B (informative) Websites where the space weather predictions and/or "now casting"
are presented .13
Annex C (informative) Definition of various skill scores .14
ISO 16698:2019(E)
Annex D (informative) Useful academic documents related with this document's fields are
presented (These are not cited in the document) .15
Bibliography .22
iv © ISO 2019 – All rights reserved
ISO 16698:2019(E)
Foreword
ISO (the International Organization for Standardization) is a worldwide federation of national standards
bodies (ISO member bodies). The work of preparing International Standards is normally carried out
through ISO technical committees. Each member body interested in a subject for which a technical
committee has been established has the right to be represented on that committee. International
organizations, governmental and non-governmental, in liaison with ISO, also take part in the work.
ISO collaborates closely with the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) on all matters of
electrotechnical standardization.
The procedures used to develop this document and those intended for its further maintenance are
described in the ISO/IEC Directives, Part 1. In particular, the different approval criteria needed for the
different types of ISO documents should be noted. This document was drafted in accordance with the
editorial rules of the ISO/IEC Directives, Part 2 (see www .iso .org/ directives).
Attention is drawn to the possibility that some of the elements of this document may be the subject of
patent rights. ISO shall not be held responsible for identifying any or all such patent rights. Details of
any patent rights identified during the development of the document will be in the Introduction and/or
on the ISO list of patent declarations received (see www .iso .org/ patents).
Any trade name used in this document is information given for the convenience of users and does not
constitute an endorsement.
For an explanation of the voluntary nature of standards, the meaning of ISO specific terms and
expressions related to conformity assessment, as well as information about ISO's adherence to the
World Trade Organization (WTO) principles in the Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT) see www .iso .org/
iso/ foreword .html.
This document was prepared by Technical Committee ISO/TC 20, Aircraft and space vehicles,
Subcommittee SC 14, Space systems and operations.
This second edition cancels and replaces the first edition (ISO 16698:2013), which has been technically
revised. The main changes compared to the previous edition are as follows:
— addition of 5.9 and 5.10;
— update of reference lists of Clause 6.
Any feedback or questions on this document should be directed to the user’s national standards body. A
complete listing of these bodies can be found at www .iso .org/ members .html.
ISO 16698:2019(E)
Introduction
This document provides guidelines for specifying the process of estimating future geomagnetic
activity. Geomagnetic indices describe the variation of the geomagnetic field over a certain time period
and provide a measure of the disturbance of the magnetosphere. These indices can be used to estimate
upper atmospheric and plasmaspheric densities and many other space environment models. They are
also used as the input parameters for orbital lifetime prediction and worst-case environment analysis
of electrostatic charging.
The accuracy and method of predicting geomagnetic indices depends on the time scale of prediction.
This document presents existing works based on three categories of time scale:
a) short-term prediction (1 h to a few days);
b) middle-term prediction (a few weeks to a few months);
c) long-term prediction (half a year to one solar cycle).
These are required as input parameters for the magnetospheric magnetic field (ISO 22009), upper
atmosphere (ISO 14222), ionosphere, plasmasphere (ISO 16457), magnetosphere charged particles and
other models of the near-Earth space environment. They also serve as the input parameters for orbital
lifetime prediction and worst-case environment analysis of electrostatic charging.
Three International Standards deal with the Earth's magnetic field, including ISO 16695 on the internal
magnetic field, ISO 22009 on
...
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