ASTM E2862-23

Standard Practice for Probability of Detection Analysis for Hit/Miss Data

SIGNIFICANCE AND USE
5.1 The POD analysis method described herein is based on a well-known and well established statistical regression method. It shall be used to quantify the demonstrated POD for a specific set of examination parameters and known range of discontinuity sizes under the following conditions.  
5.1.1 The initial response from a nondestructive evaluation inspection system is ultimately binary in nature (that is, hit or miss).  
5.1.2 Discontinuity size is the predictor variable and can be accurately quantified.  
5.1.3 A relationship between discontinuity size and POD exists and is best described by a generalized linear model with the appropriate link function for binary outcomes.  
5.2 This practice does not limit the use of a generalized linear model with more than one predictor variable or other types of statistical models if justified as more appropriate for the hit/miss data.  
5.3 If the initial response from a nondestructive evaluation inspection system is measurable and can be classified as a continuous variable (for example, data collected from an Eddy Current inspection system), then Practice E3023 may be more appropriate.  
5.4 Prior to performing the analysis it is assumed that the discontinuity of interest is clearly defined; the number and distribution of induced discontinuity sizes in the POD specimen set is known and well-documented; discontinuities in the POD specimen set are unobstructed; and the POD examination administration procedure (including data collection method) is well-designed, well-defined, under control, and unbiased. The analysis results are only valid if convergence is achieved and the model adequately represents the data.  
5.5 The POD analysis method described herein is consistent with the analysis method for binary data described in MIL-HDBK-1823A, and is included in several widely utilized POD software packages to perform a POD analysis on hit/miss data. It is also found in statistical software packages that have generalized line...
SCOPE
1.1 This practice covers the procedure for performing a statistical analysis on nondestructive testing hit/miss data to determine the demonstrated probability of detection (POD) for a specific set of examination parameters. Topics covered include the standard hit/miss POD curve formulation, validation techniques, and correct interpretation of results.  
1.2 The values stated in inch-pound units are to be regarded as standard. The values given in parentheses are mathematical conversions to SI units that are provided for information only and are not considered standard.  
1.3 This standard does not purport to address all of the safety concerns, if any, associated with its use. It is the responsibility of the user of this standard to establish appropriate safety, health, and environmental practices and determine the applicability of regulatory limitations prior to use.  
1.4 This international standard was developed in accordance with internationally recognized principles on standardization established in the Decision on Principles for the Development of International Standards, Guides and Recommendations issued by the World Trade Organization Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT) Committee.

General Information

• Status: Published
• Publication Date: 30-Jun-2023
• ICS: 03.120.30 - Application of statistical methods
• ICS: 19.100 - Non-destructive testing
• Technical Committee: E07 - Nondestructive Testing
• Drafting Committee: E07.10 - Specialized NDT Methods

Standards Content (Sample)

This international standard was developed in accordance with internationally recognized principles on standardization established in the Decision on Principles for the
Development of International Standards, Guides and Recommendations issued by the World Trade Organization Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT) Committee.
Designation: E2862 − 23
Standard Practice for
1
Probability of Detection Analysis for Hit/Miss Data
This standard is issued under the fixed designation E2862; the number immediately following the designation indicates the year of
original adoption or, in the case of revision, the year of last revision. A number in parentheses indicates the year of last reapproval. A
superscript epsilon (´) indicates an editorial change since the last revision or reapproval.
1. Scope 2.2 Department of Defense Handbook:
MIL-HDBK-1823A Nondestructive Evaluation System Re-
1.1 This practice covers the procedure for performing a
3
liability Assessment
statistical analysis on nondestructive testing hit/miss data to
determine the demonstrated probability of detection (POD) for
3. Terminology
a specific set of examination parameters. Topics covered
3.1 Definitions—For definitions of terms used in this
include the standard hit/miss POD curve formulation, valida-
practice, refer to Terminology E1316.
tion techniques, and correct interpretation of results.
3.2 Definitions of Terms Specific to This Standard:
1.2 The values stated in inch-pound units are to be regarded
3.2.1 analyst, n—the person responsible for performing a
as standard. The values given in parentheses are mathematical
POD analysis on hit/miss data resulting from a POD examina-
conversions to SI units that are provided for information only
tion.
and are not considered standard.
3.2.2 demonstrated probability of detection, n—the calcu-
1.3 This standard does not purport to address all of the
lated POD value resulting from the statistical analysis of the
safety concerns, if any, associated with its use. It is the
hit/miss data.
responsibility of the user of this standard to establish appro-
priate safety, health, and environmental practices and deter-
3.2.3 false call, n—the perceived detection of a discontinu-
mine the applicability of regulatory limitations prior to use.
ity that is identified as a find during a POD examination when
1.4 This international standard was developed in accor-
no discontinuity actually exists at the inspection site.
dance with internationally recognized principles on standard-
3.2.3.1 Discussion—A synonym for “false call” is “false
ization established in the Decision on Principles for the
positive.”
Development of International Standards, Guides and Recom-
3.2.4 hit, n—an existing discontinuity that is identified as a
mendations issued by the World Trade Organization Technical
find during a POD demonstration examination.
Barriers to Trade (TBT) Committee.
3.2.5 miss, n—an existing discontinuity that is missed dur-
ing a POD examination.
2. Referenced Documents
2
3.2.6 probability of detection (POD), n—the fraction of
2.1 ASTM Standards:
nominal discontinuity sizes expected to be found given their
E178 Practice for Dealing With Outlying Observations
existence.
E456 Terminology Relating to Quality and Statistics
E1316 Terminology for Nondestructive Examinations 3.3 Symbols:
E2586 Practice for Calculating and Using Basic Statistics
3.3.1 a—discontinuity size.
E3023 Practice for Probability of Detection Analysis for â
3.3.2 a —the discontinuity size that can be detected with
p
Versus a Data
probability p.
E3080 Practice for Regression Analysis with a Single Pre-
3.3.2.1 Discussion—Each discontinuity size has an indepen-
dictor Variable
dent probability of being detected and corresponding probabil-
ity of being missed. For example, being able to detect a specific
discontinuity size with probability p does not guarantee that a
1
This practice is under the jurisdiction of ASTM Committee E07 on Nonde-
larger size discontinuity will be found.
structive Testing and is the direct responsibility of Subcommittee E07.10 on
3.3.3 a —the discontinuity size that can be detected with
Specialized NDT Methods.
p/c
Current edition approved July 1, 2023. Published August 2023. Originally
probability p with a statistical confidence level of c.
approved in 2012. Last previous edition approved in 2018 as E2862 – 18.
DOI:10.1520/E2862-23.
2
For referenced ASTM standards, visit the ASTM website, www.astm.org, or
3
contact ASTM Customer Service at [e-mail]. For Annual Book of ASTM Available from Standardization Documents Order Desk, DODSSP, Bldg. 4,
Standards volume information, refer to the standard’s Document Summary page on Section D, 700 Robbins Ave., Philadelphia, PA 19111-5098, http://
the ASTM website. dodssp.daps.dla.mil.
Copyright © ASTM International, 100 Barr Harbor Drive, PO Box C700, West Conshohocken, PA 19428-2959. United States
1

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E2862 − 23
3.3.3.1 Discussion—According to the formula in
...

This document is not an ASTM standard and is intended only to provide the user of an ASTM standard an indication of what changes have been made to the previous version. Because
it may not be technically possible to adequately depict all changes accurately, ASTM recommends that users consult prior editions as appropriate. In all cases only the current version
of the standard as published by ASTM is to be considered the official document.
Designation: E2862 − 18 E2862 − 23
Standard Practice for
1
Probability of Detection Analysis for Hit/Miss Data
This standard is issued under the fixed designation E2862; the number immediately following the designation indicates the year of
original adoption or, in the case of revision, the year of last revision. A number in parentheses indicates the year of last reapproval. A
superscript epsilon (´) indicates an editorial change since the last revision or reapproval.
1. Scope
1.1 This practice definescovers the procedure for performing a statistical analysis on nondestructive testing hit/miss data to
determine the demonstrated probability of detection (POD) for a specific set of examination parameters. Topics covered include
the standard hit/miss POD curve formulation, validation techniques, and correct interpretation of results.
1.2 The values stated in inch-pound units are to be regarded as standard. The values given in parentheses are mathematical
conversions to SI units that are provided for information only and are not considered standard.
1.3 This standard does not purport to address all of the safety concerns, if any, associated with its use. It is the responsibility
of the user of this standard to establish appropriate safety, health, and environmental practices and determine the applicability of
regulatory limitations prior to use.
1.4 This international standard was developed in accordance with internationally recognized principles on standardization
established in the Decision on Principles for the Development of International Standards, Guides and Recommendations issued
by the World Trade Organization Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT) Committee.
2. Referenced Documents
2
2.1 ASTM Standards:
E178 Practice for Dealing With Outlying Observations
E456 Terminology Relating to Quality and Statistics
E1316 Terminology for Nondestructive Examinations
E2586 Practice for Calculating and Using Basic Statistics
E3023 Practice for Probability of Detection Analysis for â Versus a Data
E3080 Practice for Regression Analysis with a Single Predictor Variable
2.2 Department of Defense Handbook:
3
MIL-HDBK-1823A Nondestructive Evaluation System Reliability Assessment
3. Terminology
3.1 Definitions—For definitions of terms used in this practice, refer to Terminology E1316.
3.2 Definitions of Terms Specific to This Standard:
1
This practice is under the jurisdiction of ASTM Committee E07 on Nondestructive Testing and is the direct responsibility of Subcommittee E07.10 on Specialized NDT
Methods.
Current edition approved Feb. 1, 2018July 1, 2023. Published April 2018August 2023. Originally approved in 2012. Last previous edition approved in 20122018 as
E2862 – 12.E2862 – 18. DOI:10.1520/E2862-18.DOI:10.1520/E2862-23.
2
For referenced ASTM standards, visit the ASTM website, www.astm.org, or contact ASTM Customer Service at [e-mail]. For Annual Book of ASTM Standards
volume information, refer to the standard’s Document Summary page on the ASTM website.
3
Available from Standardization Documents Order Desk, DODSSP, Bldg. 4, Section D, 700 Robbins Ave., Philadelphia, PA 19111-5098, http://dodssp.daps.dla.mil.
Copyright © ASTM International, 100 Barr Harbor Drive, PO Box C700, West Conshohocken, PA 19428-2959. United States
1

---------------------- Page: 1 ----------------------
E2862 − 23
3.2.1 analyst, n—the person responsible for performing a POD analysis on hit/miss data resulting from a POD examination.
3.2.2 demonstrated probability of detection, n—the calculated POD value resulting from the statistical analysis onof the hit/miss
data.
3.2.3 false call, n—the perceived detection of a discontinuity that is identified as a find during a POD examination when no
discontinuity actually exists at the inspection site.
3.2.3.1 Discussion—
A synonym for “false call” is “false positive.”
3.2.4 hit, n—an existing discontinuity that is identified as a find during a POD demonstration examination.
3.2.5 miss, n—an existing discontinuity that is missed during a POD examination.
3.2.6 probability of detection (POD), n—the fraction of nominal discontinuity sizes expected to be found given their existence.
3.3 Symbols:
3.3.1 a—discontinuity size.
3.3.2 a —the discontinuity size that can be detected with probability p.
p
3.3.2.1 Discussion—
Each discontinuity size has an independent probability of being detected and corresponding probability of being missed. For
example, being able to detect a specific discontinuity size with probability p does not guarantee that a larger size discontinuity will
be f
...